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最新的 PRMIA Certification 8011 免費考試真題 (Q86-Q91):
問題 #86
The principle underlying the contingent claims approach to measuring credit risk equates the cost of eliminating credit risk for a firm to be equal to:
- A. the value of a put on the firm's assets with a strike equal to the value of the debt
- B. the market valuation of the firm's equity less the value of its liabilities
- C. the cost of a call on the firm's assets with a strike equal to the value of the debt
- D. the probability of the firm's assets falling below the critical value for default
答案:A
解題說明:
Under the contingent claims approach, a firm will default on its debt when the value of its assets fall to less than the face value of the debt. Debt holders can protect themselves against such an event by buying a put on the assets of the firm, where the strike price is equal to the value of the debt. In other words, Risky Debt + Put on the firm's assets = Risk free debt. This is because if the value of the assets is greater than the value of the debt, they will be paid in full. If the value of the assets is lower than the value of the debt, they will exercise the put and be paid in full.
Therefore the value of the put on the firm's assets with a strike equal to the value of the debt represents the cost of eliminating credit risk. Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
Note that it is improbable that a put on the firm's assets is available in real life to debt holders. However, the same effect can be synthetically achieved by using the shares of the firm as a proxy for its assets, and shorting an appropriate number of shares. Such a synthetic put will require frequent readjustments.
問題 #87
What is the risk horizon period used for credit risk as generally used for economic capital calculations and as required by regulation?
- A. 10 days
- B. 10 years
- C. 1-day
- D. 1 year
答案:D
解題說明:
The credit risk horizon for credit VaR is generally one year. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
問題 #88
A risk analyst attempting to model the tail of a loss distribution using EVT divides the available dataset into blocks of data, and picks the maximum of each block as a data point to consider.
Which approach is the risk analyst using?
- A. Expected loss approach
- B. Fourier transformation
- C. Block Maxima approach
- D. Peak-over-thresholds approach
答案:C
解題說明:
The risk analyst is using the block maxima approach. The data points that result will then be used to fit a GEV distribution.
Expected shortfall refers to the expected losses beyond a specified threshold. The peaks-over-threshold approach is an alternative approach to the block maxima approach, and involves considering exceedances above a threshold. Fourier transformation is not relevant in this context, and is a non-sensical option.
問題 #89
Which of the following risks and reasons justify the use of scenario analysis in operational risk modeling:
I). Risks for which no internal loss data is available
II). Risks that are foreseeable but have no precedent, internally or externally
III). Risks for which objective assessments can be made by experts
IV). Risks that are known to exist, but for which no reliable external or internal losses can be analyzed
V). Reducing the complexity of having to fit statistical models to internal and external loss data
VI). Managing the capital estimation process as to produce estimates in line with management's desired capital buffers.
- A. V
- B. I, II, III and IV
- C. I, II and III
- D. All of the above
答案:B
解題說明:
All the reasons and risks presented above are valid reasons for using scenario analysis, except V and VI - ie, the need to reduce the complexity of calculations is not a valid reason for using scenarioanalysis. Similarly, making operational risk capital estimates match management's desired capital allocation targets is also not a valid reason. Capital calculations are intended to provide adequate capital for managing the risk from operations, regardless of what management may desire them to be.
問題 #90
The largest 10 losses over a 250 day observation period are as follows. Calculate the expected shortfall at a
98% confidence level:
20m
19m
19m
17m
16m
13m
11m
10m
9m
9m
- A. 0
- B. 18.2
- C. 14.3
- D. 19.5
答案:B
解題說明:
For a dataset with 250 observations, the top 2% of the losses will be the top 5 observations. Expected shortfall is the average of the losses beyond the VaR threshold. Therefore the correct answer is (20 + 19 + 19 + 17 +
16)/5 = 18.2m .
Note that Expected Shortfall is also called conditional VaR (cVaR), Expected Tail Loss and Tail average.
問題 #91
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